| Mainstream Media | Spin Unraveled! |
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| Mark Twain popularized the phrase: There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics. TheFreeDictionary.com explains: The semi-ironic statement refers to the persuasive power of numbers, and succinctly describes how statistics, even accurate ones, can be used to bolster an inaccurate argument through such methods as selectively choosing data, ignoring bad results and over-emphasizing good results. Polls are nothing more than gathering statistics. |
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By John Whitesides, Political Correspondent Mon Oct 11,10:54 AM ET | |
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WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Democratic challenger John Kerry (news - web sites) expanded his slight lead over President Bush (news - web sites) to three points in a tight race for the White House, according to a Reuters/Zogby poll released on Monday. | One wonders why this is even news?! In the first place, there's not ONE poll. Especially on the eve of a presidential election, there are many polls. How can you report just ONE? At PollingReport.com, for example, they list the Reuters/Zogby poll as one of three major polls taken on that day. |
| The Massachusetts senator held a 47-44 percent lead over Bush in the latest three-day tracking poll, up two points from Sunday. Bush's support dropped one point and Kerry's support rose one point in the new poll. | The only objective case for reporting ONE would be to report the largest spread. But that would be the ABC News/Washington Post Tracking Poll showing Bush ahead by four points! |
| The close race turns up the pressure for Wednesday's final debate in Tempe, Arizona, when the White House rivals will have another chance to make their case to voters on domestic issues. | You could even exercise a media bias, with a modicum of integrity, by saying: "Kerry leads in two out of three polls!" ... acknowledging the mixed results. But apparently this reporter wants to convey the false impression that Kerry is undisputedly winning the race for president! |
| The poll found six percent of likely voters are still undecided about the race with barely more than three weeks to go until the Nov. 2 election, and 16 percent of the voters who identify themselves as independents are undecided. | "The poll ... " If the title was "Kerry Opens Three Point Lead in One Poll" then you could write this whole article just referring to "The poll ... " Just to keep all three polls in perspective, remember: the population of the United States is approximately 275,562,673 with about 20 percent children. Keep this as a point of reference when you realize these pollsters are only asking 793 (CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll), 1200 (Reuters/Zogby Tracking Poll) and 1,601 (ABC News/Washington Post Tracking Poll) likely voters out of what would be, then, about 200,000,000 voting-age Americans! If any of the polls reflects a true "pulse" of the nation, it would be a very great surprise. |
| Bush made small gains among young voters and Kerry picked up strength among women voters ahead of the debate -- the final chance for both candidates to speak directly to an audience of millions of voters. | "Bush made small gains ... " "and Kerry picked up strength ... " The syntax alone belittles Bush and pumps up Kerry. I don't exagerrate, here, word choice is a powerful subliminal; notice it as you read, and never underestimate the volition of the press to manipulate you. |
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"Wednesday's debate is vital because many sub-groups remain close and because so many independents have yet to make up their minds," pollster John Zogby said.
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| The poll of 1,214 likely voters was taken Friday through Sunday and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points. The rolling poll will continue through Nov. 1 -- the day before the election. | The ABC News/Washington Post Tracking Poll, showing Bush ahead by four (4) points used a larger sample (1601; generally a larger sample has a better chance of accuracy) and has a smaller margin of error (2.5%); it is also a tracking poll. |
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The last two days of polling came after Bush and Kerry battered each other over Iraq (news - web sites), jobs and taxes during a debate on Friday. The economy and Iraq are consistently listed as the top issues in the race. A tracking poll combines the results of three consecutive nights of polling, then drops the first night's results each time a new night is added. It allows pollsters to record shifts in voter sentiment as they happen. The poll found 48 percent of voters thought the United States was headed in the wrong direction and 45 percent thought it was headed in the right direction. It also showed independent candidate Ralph Nader (news - web sites), blamed by some Democrats for drawing enough votes from Al Gore (news - web sites) to cost him the election in 2000, earning the support of 1.7 percent of likely voters. |